AI has compressed the pace of industrial change — five years out is no longer a distant future. I've tracked AI, mobility and European industry first-hand since 2008, reading the technology itself and translating what it means for your decisions. Delivered as keynotes, foresight research and advisory — to executives, strategy teams and R&D.
A forecast is only as good as the way it was made. Mine are built on three instruments.
CES every year since 2008 — and Hannover Messe, IAA and Europe's major fairs, the same halls every time. One visit shows you exhibits. Eighteen years of the same vantage point show you the speed at which an industry is actually changing.
I read the technology itself — semiconductors to AI to energy — then connect it across industries: a booth layout in Munich to a boardroom decision in Tokyo. Point news becomes a line you can act on.
Every call goes on the ledger and gets reviewed in public each December — the misses stay on the record. If prediction is the product, accountability is the price of admission.
| Show | Cadence | What I track |
|---|---|---|
| CES · Las Vegas | Every January · since 2008 | AI, autonomous driving, robotics — and where Japanese firms really stand in the world |
| Hannover Messe | Every spring | Industrial DX, energy transition, the factory of the decade ahead |
| IAA Mobility | Biennial · Munich | European mobility strategy, the China question, the software-defined vehicle frontier |
| IAA Transportation | Biennial · Hanover | Autonomous trucks and buses, robotaxis, the future of transport and energy |
| VivaTechnology | Annual · Paris | Europe's largest startup fair — startup momentum and corporate open innovation |
A selection of the fixed points — I also track InnoEX Hong Kong, Edge Tech+ and other shows and conferences in Japan and abroad.
A forecast is worth only as much as the reasoning behind it. I log every call with its grounds and falsification conditions, and review all of them — hits and misses — in public each December. Here are three readings that best show how the analysis works.
The reasoningNext-generation autonomy is converging on end-to-end AI — camera input translated directly into driving — and its safety certification rests on massive simulation-based validation. Combustion drivetrains, with their complex response behavior, fit that regime poorly. This is not a position on whether EVs are good; it is a reading of how autonomy's technical demands structurally squeeze the engine out. The falsification condition — an engine-driven car passing end-to-end certification — is logged with the call.
The reasoningThe humanoid race is chasing human likeness — my reading runs the other way: the closer to human, the further from deployment. Five fingers and twenty-plus joints mean assigning control parameters to every degree of freedom: the computation explodes, and the simulation training that Physical AI depends on stops being realistic. On the CES 2026 floor, the robot actually working in factories, with this year's production sold out, gripped with three fingers, while machines built around fully human-mimicking, high-degree-of-freedom hands have yet to show commercial results. Copying the human hand is not the goal; finding the minimum configuration that does the job is. A reading built from commercial track records on the floor, not spec sheets.
The reasoningBy the time solid-state ships around 2028–29, today's fast-improving liquid batteries will likely have solved fast charging and safety first. What decides the race is market timing and the pace of incumbent improvement, not theoretical superiority — a structural reading that runs against the popular narrative.
Every call is logged with its public source, grounds and falsification conditions. The full ledger is being prepared for publication and is reviewed in public each December.
Speaking, research and advisory — three ways to put the analysis to work, delivered to corporations for over ten years. In every format, I do the work myself.
Service 01 — Speaking: keynotes, corporate seminars, bilingual moderationWhat the show floor says about the year ahead: AI, autonomous driving, robotics — and where Japanese firms really stand. Annual seminars, every year.
Industrial DX and the energy transition, translated into decisions for manufacturers. What Europe's factory floor means for yours.
IAA Mobility and IAA Transportation, in alternating years. From software-defined cars to autonomous trucking — where Europe's mobility is heading.
What is actually happening inside Japanese carmakers — beyond the headlines, with numbers and structure. Updated continuously.
Also Asia Smart City Conference (Pacifico Yokohama) · Austria Connect Japan · X-HUB Tokyo
Market forecasts to 2040, built around your question.
Market reports are standard products, built to fit everyone's question. Board decisions need forecasts designed around yours — which technologies will reshape your business, when, and at what scale. A simple CAGR extension misses the turning points. My method layers first-hand field data with market and technology dynamics and case studies of how past technologies actually diffused — building market scenarios to 2040 with ranges, reasons, and the conditions that would change the answer.
Book a 30-minute intro callA monthly outside eye for your strategy team.
One 90-minute briefing a month — Japan's mobility shifts, translated into your company's decisions — plus a direct question channel (48-hour response) and priority field reports from CES, Hannover Messe and IAA. Reports don't answer questions; I do. And the next month, I follow up on how the answer held. The prediction ledger is public and scored every December — you can check my track record before you pay for it.
Book a 30-minute intro call
Contrarian readings of EV, autonomous driving and AI — backed by numbers, watched by engineers inside Japan's largest carmakers and suppliers.
Latest episode (JP)EVが普及するとクルマはブーブーじゃなくなるのかな？ ↗ Note · JapaneseLong-form structural analysis, plus a membership for readers who want the full ledger.
Latest article (JP)「EV否定」の空気が残す、将来への巨大な禍根 ↗ LinkedIn · EnglishEnglish notes from the show floor and the Japanese industry, as it happens.
Followlinkedin.com/in/andykondo → ↗I talk about the future for a living. Daily life, meanwhile, looks mostly like this.
